1. NDA to Fall Short of Majority in 2019 Elections: ABP-CVoter Survey

January 24 2019, 2:45PM

The ABP-CVoter survey has predicted that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may fall short of the majority mark of 272 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA is predicted to get 233 seats, while the UPA is predicted to settle for 167 seats.

The BJP alone is expected to bag 203 seats, while the Congress alone is expected to bag 109.

The Third Front parties are poised to be kingmakers with a combined tally of over 130 seats.

However, the NDA will still be the largest pre-poll alliance by a comfortable margin, the survey says.

If the NDA gets the support of YSRCP, BJD, MNF and TRS, its tally is expected to reach 278, slightly more than the majority mark. If the UPA gets the support of AIUDF, LDF, TMC and the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ of SP-BSP-RLD, its tally is expected to reach 257.

Here are some of the other highlights of the survey:

Summary:

Parties that were present at Mamata Banerjee’s rally, in addition to the Left parties, are predicted to get 257 seats. At 25%, anger against the Centre is at its highest in the past five years. The Citizenship Bill has harmed the BJP in the Northeast.

The Mahagathbandhan has gained ground in Uttar Pradesh. It is up from 42 seats in December to 51. NDA is down from 36 seats to 25 seats.

Here are what the numbers for the states look like:

The SP-BSP-RLD alliance is predicted to have a clean victory in Uttar Pradesh with 51 seats out of 80. In Punjab, the UPA is expected to sweep, winning 12 out of 13 seats. The NDA is predicted to have an upper hand in Delhi, Himachal, Uttarakhand Haryana and Bihar.

The NDA is expected to win a majority of seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, the UPA is at an advantage in Maharashtra. In Goa, the NDA and UPA are expected to bag one seat each.

While the NDA is expected to be at an advantage in Odisha over Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is expected to sweep West Bengal.

Among the southern states, the regional parties are expected to win big in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. While the UPA has an upper hand in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, it’s neck and neck with the NDA in Karnataka.

In the Northeast, the NDA and UPA will have a tough fight in most states.

2. TOI

2019 Lok Sabha elections: Times Now-VMR survey

TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Updated: Jan 31, 2019, 08:20 IST

HIGHLIGHTS

The survey projects a hung Lok Sabha in 2019 with the BJP-led NDA winning 252 seats The BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 215 seats and Congress will improve its tally to 96 seats, according to the survey.

In UP, the SP-BSP led Mahagathbandhan is predicted to win 51 seats.

Get Notifications on latest News & Updates NEW DELHI: The Times Now-VMR opinion survey for the upcoming general election has predicted a hung Lok Sabha in 2019 with the BJP-led NDA winning 252 seats in the 545-member house followed by the Congress-led UPA with 147 seats and Others with 144 seats. Individually, the BJP's tally is projected to come down to 215 in 2019 from 282 in 2014, while the Congress is predicted to improve its tally to 96 seats from 44 in the previous general election. Here is the state-wise seat projection:

* Uttar Pradesh (80 seats): SP-BSP led Mahagathbandhan is predicted to win 51 seats followed by NDA 27, UPA 2 and Others 0

* Maharashtra (48 seats): NDA is slated to get 43, UPA 5, Others 0.

* West Bengal (42 seats): TMC is predicted to win 32, NDA 9, UPA 1, whereas Left and Others will not get any seats.

* Bihar (40 seats): NDA is predicted to win 25, UPA 15, and Others 0.

* Tamil Nadu (39 seats): UPA will get 35 seats, AIADMK will get 4. The survey shows NDA failing to open its account in the state.

* Madhya Pradesh (29 seats): NDA is predicted to win 23, UPA 6, BSP and Others 0.

* Karnataka (28 seats): UPA and NDA predicted to bag 14 seats apiece.

* Gujarat (26 seats): NDA is predicted to win 24 seats, UPA to get 2 and Others 0.

*Andhra Pradesh (25 seats): YSRCP will get 23 and TDP will win two seats while UPA and NDA won't get any seats. YSRCP set to sweep Andhra Pradesh. Jagan likely to bag 23 seats and may end up playing kingmaker. Uphill task for AP CM N Chandrababu Naidu and NDA.

* Rajasthan (25 seats): NDA slated to win 17 seats whereas UPA will get 8, BSP and Others won't get any.

* Odisha (21 seats): NDA is predicted to win 13 seats, BJD 8, UPA and Others won't get any.

* Kerala (20 seats): UDF is predicted to win 16, LDF to get 3 and NDA will get 1.

* Telangana (17 seats): TRS predicted to win 10, UPA to get 5 whereas NDA and Others will get 1 each.

* Jharkhand (14 seats): UPA is predicted to win 8, NDA 6, and Others 0.

* Assam (14 seats): NDA is predicted to win 8, UPA 3, AIUDF 2, and Others 1.

* Punjab (13 seats): UPA is slated to get 12 seats, AAP 1, NDA and Others won't get any.

* Chhattisgarh (11 seats): UPA is predicted to win 6, NDA 5, whereas BSP and Others won't get any.

* Haryana (10 seats): NDA is predicted to win 8 Lok Sabha seats and UPA to get 2.

* Delhi (7 seats): NDA is predicted to win 6 Lok Sabha seats whereas AAP will get 1 and UPA, Others won't get any.

* Jammu and Kashmir (6 seats): National Conference is predicted to get 4 seats, whereas UPA and NDA will get 1 seat each; PDP and Others won't get any.

* Uttarakhand (5 seats): NDA is predicted to win all the 5.

* Himachal Pradesh (4 seats): NDA is predicted to get 3 whereas UPA will get 1 Lok Sabha seat.

* Arunachal Pradesh (2 seats): NDA is predicted to win 2 seats, while as UPA and Others won't get any.

* Manipur (2 seats): UPA and NDA are predicted to win one each.

* Tripura (2 seats): NDA is predicted to win both the Lok Sabha seats.

* Goa (2 seats): NDA and UPA are predicted to win one each.

* Nagaland (1 seat): The lone seat is predicted to go to NDA.

* Mizoram (1 seat): One seat is slated to go to NDA.

* Meghalaya (1 seat): NDA is predicted to win the only Lok Sabha seat.

* Sikkim (1 seat): Others is predicted to win the lone Lok Sabha seat while NDA and UPA won't get any.

* Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu (1 seat each): NDA is predicted to win both the seats while UPA won't get any.

* Daman and Diu (1 seat): NDA is predicted to win the only seat.

* Andaman and Nicoman Islands (1 seat): NDA is predicted to win the lone seat.

* Chandigarh (1 seat): UPA is slated to get the lone seat, according to the poll.

* Lakshadweep (1 seat): NCP is predicted to win the lone Lok Sabha seat.

* Puducherry (1 seat): NDA is predicted to win the Lok Sabha seat.

15 ELECTIONS LOK SABHA ELECTION 2019 Findings from CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2019 Pre-poll survey: State-wise popularity trends point to a close election 59% of the respondents reported being satisfied with the Central government’s performance 59% of the respondents reported being satisfied with the Central government’s performance | Photo Credit: AP Lokniti Team

06 APRIL 2019 23:07 IST

UPDATED: 08 APRIL 2019 16:47 IST

Satisfaction levels with the Modi regime, though, have improved in the last year

A total of 59% of the respondents in the CSDS-Lokniti-The Hindu-Tiranga TV-Dainik Bhaskar Pre-Poll Survey reported being satisfied with the Central government’s performance, with 35% registering dissatisfaction. This 24 percentage point net satisfaction with the government marked a definite increase from its popularity numbers last year when the net satisfaction had dropped to zero (46% satisfied, 47% dissatisfied).

After having dipped in 2018, satisfaction with the NDA government is now almost back to post-demonetization high

Pre-poll 2019 (%) May 2018 (%)

January 2018 (%) May 2017 (%

Satisfied with NDA government 59 47

51 64

Dissatisfied with NDA government 35

47 40 27

No response 6 6 9 9

Complete dissatisfaction with the government is lower than complete satisfaction; a year ago this was not the case

Pre-poll 2019 (%) May 2018 (%) Fully satisfied with NDA government 24 16

Somewhat satisfied with NDA government 35

31 Somewhat dissatisfied with NDA government

15 15

Fully dissatisfied with NDA government 20

32

No response 6 6

Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre over the last five years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied).

But when it came to the question of giving the government a second chance, the numbers were much closer — 46% for doing so, and 36% against. A comparison with the 2009 election is merited here — in May 2009, net satisfaction with the Manmohan Singh-led government was as high as 43 points (64% were satisfied and 21% dissatisfied). With that satisfaction rating, the Congress and its allies managed to win 262 seats, falling 10 short of majority. This suggests that the 2019 election will not be a cakewalk for the NDA government.

Anti-incumbency sentiment has weakened in last one year

Pre-poll 2019 (%) MOTN May 2018 (%)

Modi govt. should get another chance 46

39 Modi government should not get another chance

36 47

No response 18 14

Question asked: Should the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre get another chance after the coming Lok Sabha election?

Satisfaction with NDA government much higher than what it was with UPA-2 in 2014 but it is lower than satisfaction with UPA-1

NDA 2019 (%) UPA-II 2014 (%) UPA-1

2009 (%) Satisfied with government 59 46

64 Dissatisfied with government 35 44

21

No response 6 10 15

Two-fifths see the NDA government as being better than the previous UPA government

NDA 2019 (%)

NDA government is better 38

UPA government was better 27

Both were equally good 11

Neither was good 11

No response 13

Question asked: If we compare the present BJP-led NDA government at the Centre with the earlier Congress-led UPA government, which one of the two has been better in your opinion?

Satisfaction notwithstanding, voters are not happy with specific details of the government’s performance. The assessment of the government on corruption, price rise and employment opportunities is not very positive. It would, therefore, be interesting to see if voters rely more on their general sense of satisfaction or on a more nuanced sense on performance in key areas.

Voters’ assessment of Modi government’s performance on different parameters

Increased (%) Decreased (%) Remained same (%) No response (%) Gap between Rich and Poor 43 31 18 8

India’s image in the world 48 20 18 14

Corruption 42 36 15 7 Employment opportunities 25 46 21 8

Prices of essential commodities 61 19 14 6

Welfare programmes for the poor 31 32 25 12

Harmony between communities 23 31 28 18

Question asked: Now I will ask you about some important issues. Please tell me about each whether these have increased or decreased during the last 5 years of BJP-NDA’s rule at the Centre?

Moreover, the question is — will the NDA be able to reap electoral dividends across the country from the fairly high overall satisfaction with its performance. It may help to look at the States to answer this question. We find that the 59% satisfaction with the NDA recorded by the survey is not evenly spread across the 19 surveyed States with some States reporting very high satisfaction levels and some abysmally low.

Barring Karnataka, all the southern States recorded a negative net satisfaction with the Central government’s performance. In Andhra Pradesh it is -5, in Telangana, -7, and in Tamil Nadu and Kerala -39. Moreover, in two of these states – Telangana and Kerala - voters were found to be far more satisfied with the state government’s performance than the central government’s performance in net terms.

In fact we notice this pattern/trend in 10 of the 19 States where the survey was conducted. In Punjab for instance, the net satisfaction with the Modi government was -29 whereas net satisfaction with the Congress-led state government was found to be +17. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, which elected Congress governments just recently, we notice a similar pattern.

Even as the Modi government is highly popular in the two states, the State governments seem to be even more popular. Net satisfaction with the BJD government in Odisha and the Trinamool government in West Bengal was also found to be far higher than the net satisfaction with the Modi government’s performance in these States. This is a national election no doubt, but the higher popularity of State governments vis-à-vis the Central government is not going to make matters easy for the BJP. The survey also found that voters in Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are also likely to give preference to the performance of their State government while casting their vote in the Lok Sabha election than the performance of the Central government. In many other States, even as voters are more likely to give importance to the Central government’s work, there is a high proportion that will take a final decision after taking both the governments’ work into account.

In 10 of 19 States where survey was conducted, net satisfaction with the State government is greater than satisfaction with Central government

Net Satisfaction with NDA government (% points) Net Satisfaction with State government (% points)

Andhra Pradesh -5 -11

Assam 30 32

Bihar 43 38

Chhattisgarh 53 80

Delhi 27 54

Gujarat 49 49

Haryana 58 55

Jharkhand 6 3

Karnataka 40 47

Kerala -39 40

Madhya Pradesh 26 45

Maharashtra 37 23

Odisha 73 84

Punjab -29 17

Rajasthan 43 36

Tamil Nadu -39 -41

Telangana -7 62

Uttar Pradesh 33 22

West Bengal 14 22

Net satisfaction is proportion of those satisfied minus proportion of those dissatisfied

Local vs national

The BJP faces another problem. Even as the survey found that in all the currently NDA governed states, voters are satisfied with both the state and the central governments’ performance, there are some States where they do not seem to be much satisfied with the performance of their sitting BJP MPs. Among the sampled constituencies in Bihar, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh we found satisfaction levels with BJP Mps registering just borderline positive numbers. Yet among almost all NDA-governed states, the voters are more likely to vote on the basis of the party and the PM candidate, rather than their local candidate. Only Maharashtra stands out where the local candidate matters as much as the party for the voter.

In most States, voters will vote looking at Central government’s performance while voting than the State government’s performance

Performance of Central government will matter more while voting (%)

Performance of State government will matter more while voting (%) Both (%)

Andhra Pradesh 12 35 40

Assam 32 7 39

Bihar 40 11 45

Chhattisgarh 31 23 27

Delhi 63 20 15

Gujarat 23 18 35

Haryana 19 6 53

Jharkhand 32 16 41

Karnataka 38 23 33

Kerala 20 12 30

Madhya Pradesh 28 19 37

Maharashtra 20 10 58

Odisha 9 15 53

Punjab 20 7 62

Rajasthan 22 31 36

Tamil Nadu 25 22 33

Telangana 5 39 42

Uttar Pradesh 34 12 37

West Bengal 38 20 17 The rest said neither or gave no response

Another striking finding comes from Chhattisgarh where in the 3 sampled constituencies we found high satisfaction levels with the sitting MPs which is higher than the satisfaction with the NDA government. Could the BJP have therefore erred in dropping all its sitting MPs?

Net satisfaction with BJP MPs was found to be extremely low in Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and UP; very high in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka

Whose performance will be considered while voting in the Lok Sabha election Pre-

poll 2019 (%) March 2014 (%)

Bihar 43 -10

Delhi 27 2

Madhya Pradesh 26 8

Maharashtra 37 1

Uttar Pradesh 33 5

Chhattisgarh 53 65

Karnataka 40 89

Net satisfaction is proportion of satisfaction minus proportion of those dissatisfied

While the BJP would want the election to be fought on Prime Minister Modi’s image, that strategy may have to encounter entrenched State-level factors. ***

OTHER FINDINGS

Satisfaction with Modi government continues to be highest in cities and lowest in small towns; in cities two thirds are satisfied now as opposed to half a year ago

Pre-poll 2019 (%) MOTN May 2018 (%) Satisfied Dissatisfied

Satisfied Dissatisfied

Villages 58 34 48 46

Towns 54 41 42 52

Cities 66 30 50 46

Young voters are slightly more satisfied with the government than the elderly

Age group Satisfied (%) Dissatisfied (%)

18-25 years 60 35

26-35 63 34

36-45 58 37

46-55 57 36

56+ 54 34

In 2014, over half the voters had wanted the government out, now nearly half want the NDA to be back

2019 NDA govt. (%) 2014 UPA govt. (%) Govt. should get another chance 46 25 Govt. should not get another chance 36

53

No response 18 22

Question asked: Should the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre get another chance after the coming Lok Sabha election?

For half the respondents Acche Din seem to have arrived again

Pre-poll 2019 (%) May 2018 (%)

January 2018 (%) May 2017 (%) Modi has succeeded in bringing Achhe Din

51 42 41 63 Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din 39

52 50 27

No response 10 6 9 10

Question asked: During the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, Narendra Modi had promised to bring ‘acchhe din’. After ___ years of Modi’s government, do you think Modi has succeeded or failed in bringing ‘acchhe din’?

People slightly more likely to consider Centre’s performance this time compared to 2014

Whose performance will be considered while voting in the Lok Sabha election Pre-

poll 2019 (%) March 2014 (%

State government 17 26

Central government 28 24

Both 39 26

Neither/Other 4 6

No response 12 18

Satisfaction with BJP MPs is the same as satisfaction with the Modi government

% Satisfaction with BJP MPs* 60 Dissatisfaction with BJP MPs* 36

Satisfaction with Modi government 59 Dissatisfaction with Modi government 35 *in surveyed seats

Dissatisfaction with performance of sitting MPs of Congress’ allies and BJP’s allies the greatest; dissatisfaction with BJP MPs higher than dissatisfaction with Cong MPs

Fully satisfied (%) Somewhat satisfied (%) Somewhat dissatisfied (%)

Fully dissatisfied (%) No response (%

Congress MPs 34 40 13 7

6

Congress allies MPs 12 39 24

24 1

BJP MPs 28 32 19 17 5

BJP allies MPs 25 30 13 28

4

BSP+ MPs 40 37 16 6

1

Left MPs 30 51 10 1

9

Others 24 31 14 21 11

Net satisfaction with BJP MPs was found to be extremely low in Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and UP; very high in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka

Whose performance will be considered while

voting in the Lok Sabha election Pre-

poll 2019 (%) March 2014 (%)

Bihar 43 -10

Delhi 27 2

Madhya Pradesh 26 8

Maharashtra 37 1

Uttar Pradesh 33 5

Chhattisgarh 53 65

Karnataka 40 89

Net satisfaction is proportion of satisfaction minus proportion of those dissatisfied

Note of caution here: Net satisfaction of BJP MPs is only for those seats that fell in our sample – in Chhattisgarh there were 3 such seats, in Karnataka 3, Maharashtra 6, Madhya Pradesh 4, Delhi 3, Bihar 4 and Uttar Pradesh 13.

--------------------------------------------

Lokniti-CSDS National Election Study Pre Poll

2019

Methodology

As part of its National Election Study, Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, conducted a Pre-Poll Survey between March 24th and March 31st, 2019 among 10,010 respondents spread across 19 States of India - Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The survey was conducted in 101 Assembly Constituencies (ACs) spread across 101 Parliamentary Constituencies (PCs). The total sample size targeted was 10,100 with an AC/PC-wise target of 100 interviews. In order to decide the number of PCs to be sampled in each of the 19 States, we first gave special weightage to the small States with 14 seats or less in order to achieve a decent sample of 300 from these States. Thereafter, the number of PCs to be sampled in the remaining medium and large States was determined based on the proportion of their electorate in the total electorate of the remaining States. The resultant target sample of each State was then adjusted to the nearest 100.

The sampling design adopted was multi-stage random sampling. This procedure ensures that the selected sample is fully representative of the cross-section of voters in the country. The PCs where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method (adjusting the probability of choosing a particular constituency according to the size of its electorate). Then, one AC was selected from within each sampled PC using the PPS method again. Thereafter, four polling stations were selected from within each of the sampled ACs using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, 38 respondents were randomly selected using the systematic method from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. Of these 38, we set a target of 25 interviews per polling station.

Once we identified our sample among the electorate, trained field investigators or FIs (a training workshop for them was conducted in each State) were sent to meet them. They were asked to interview only those whose names had been sampled. However, at some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements/substitutions. Our investigators sat down in the homes of people and asked them a detailed set of questions which could take up to 30 minutes. The questionnaire we presented to our sample of voters was designed in the language mainly spoken in the respondents’ State. In Gujarat in Gujarati, in Kerala in Malayalam, etc. Each PC/AC was covered by a team of two FIs, except Tamil Nadu where a team of four FIs was sent to each AC due to late start of fieldwork. A total 216 field investigators conducted the survey at 404 locations.

The achieved national sample is broadly representative of India’s population, in terms of the country's general demographic profile. Data of each State has been weighted by gender, locality, caste group and religion as per Census 2011 percentages.

Profile of the achieved national sample

Raw share in the achieved survey sample (%)

Actual share in total population of 19 States as per Census 2011 (%)

Actual share in India’s total population as per Census 2011 (%)

Women

46

49

49

Urban

34

31

31

SC

19

17

17

ST

10

8

9

Muslim 13

14

14

Christian

2

2

2

Sikh

3

2

2

Note: Figures have been round off.

The survey was coordinated by scholars from the Lokniti Network: E Venkatesu and Srinivas Rao Gangiredla (Andhra Pradesh), Dhruba Pratim Sharma and Nurul Hassan (Assam), Rakesh Ranjan (Bihar), Lakhan Choudhary (Chhattisgarh), Biswajit Mohanty and (Delhi), Bhanu Parmar (Gujarat), Kushal Pal and Anita Agarwal (Haryana), Harishwar Dayal and Amit Kumar (Jharkhand), Veenadevi and K L Nagesh (Karnataka), Sajad Ibrahim and Rincy Mathew (Kerala), Yatindra Singh Sisodia and Ashish Bhatt (Madhya Pradesh), Nitin Birmal (Maharashtra), Gyanaranjan Swain and Balaram Pradhan (Odisha), Ashutosh Kumar and Hardeep Kaur (Punjab), Sanjay Lodha and Nidhi Seth (Rajasthan), P Ramajayam (Tamil Nadu), Vageeshan Harathi and Ramya C. (Telangana), Mirza Asmer Beg, Shashikant Pandey and Sudhir Khare (Uttar Pradesh), and Suprio Basu and Jyotiprasad Chatterjee (West Bengal).

The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti, CSDS. The team included Amrit Negi, Amrit Pandey, Anurag Jain, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Manjesh Rana, Sakshi Khemani, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti..
come and take part my survey Joshua Irengbam Survey Consultancy (JISC)
note: it is a collection from internet any wrong entry may be ready to change as well delete.